Earlier this afternoon, the Orioles made their first major move of the off-season. The team acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers, along with $3 million to cover part of his 2010 salary, for Chris Ray and that oft-traded legend, Player to Be Named Later.
Ray was already a potential roster cut after a 7.27 ERA performance over 43 1/3 innings coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2008. He managed to walk a full batter more per nine innings than his previous career average, and since he had already struggled in 2007 before ending his season early, and will be 28 on Opening Day, he was not a real good bet for a resurrected career. Despite that, this random Internet blogger was always a supporter and hopes to see Ray have a perfect season next year for the Rangers, only losing in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the ALCS to a resurgent Orioles team.
The PTBNL was...well, we don't know yet. And any Oriole fan will tell you that Andy MacPhail has a strange history with those kinds of guys.
The Birds were looking for a veteran starter to stabilize a rotation that saw ten pitchers make at least eight starts in 2009 and was set to have at least three pitchers ages 24-or-younger on Opening Day. Millwood is coming off of a 3.67 ERA year in Texas, which is a feat in itself. However, there is plenty to be worried about with his performance.
In the two seasons previous to last year, Millwood had a 5.12 ERA and averaged 1.6 baserunners allowed per inning. His strikeout rate fell by more than a full K while his walk rate rose. His FIP ERA (Fielding-Independent Pitching, or basically what the pitcher can control himself) last season was 4.80, suggesting that he received a good bit of help from his defense.
Despite the way those numbers look, the Orioles appear to have made a solid move. Any equivalent pitcher on the free agent market would have cost just as much in cash, over multiple years, and likely would have needed even more as a premium to come help build a rotation in Baltimore. Getting Millwood essentially for $9 million over one year is a comparative steal.
The Orioles wanted a starter to hold the fort down as younger pitchers come up and to help get the team into a better position in the short-term to make better moves in the future. They got the guy they wanted. All that's left is to hope the right move was made.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
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