The 2009-10 off-season is about 60% over. Spring training is only a month-and-a-half away, and most of the major moves teams are expected to make have come and gone.
Though there are still plenty of things to come, it's time to figure out where the Orioles stand going into this upcoming season. Position by position.
Catcher:
The Incumbent: Matt Wieters
The Competition: None
The Backup: Chad Moeller
The Competition: Craig Tatum, Michael Hernandez, Adam Donachie
The Prospect: Caleb Joseph
There's no real competition for the catcher position for the first time since Charles Johnson. Wieters is the superstar-in-waiting and will likely man this position for the next couple years barring injury, no matter what kind of production he actually puts up.
Moeller impressed the team in the second half of last season after the Zaun trade, enough to bring him back on a minor-league deal. Unless another catcher comes available via trade or release, the backup spot is already filled.
In the future, though, the Orioles may have an interesting decision to make regarding Caleb Joseph. A seventh-round pick out of Lipscomb University in 2008, Joseph had a .744 OPS in Aberdeen in his first season, followed by a breakout .787 season in Frederick in 2009. He has jumped into the team's Top-Ten prospect lists from most media outlets, and could eventually either end up the backup in Baltimore or, if the team decides to try and keep Wieters from wearing down and moves him to another position, the starter.
First Base:
The Incumbent: Ty Wigginton
The Competition: Michael Aubrey, Luke Scott, Brandon Snyder
The Backup: Aubrey
The Competition: Rhyne Hughes
The Prospect: Snyder
First base is one of the biggest holes that the Orioles still have to fill. Wigginton will go into the season as the starter-by-default, if no other moves are made. Despite his abilities, hitting 20 home runs for three straight seasons before signing in Baltimore, his ability to play multiple positions with at least passable defense makes him much more valuable to the team as a utility player.
Aubrey was picked up after his release midseason from the Cleveland organization, and performed well in a short call-up with the major-league club at the end of 2009. However the minor-league resume for the former eleventh-overall pick in 2003, particularly his career .753 OPS in over 1500 PAs between Double- and Triple-A, doesn't offer encouragement for a repeat over a full major-league season.
Luke Scott started eight games at first base in 2009, playing the position for the first time since Single-A in 2002, but the team has showed no desire to place him there full-time. Rhyne Hughes was the player acquired for Greg Zaun, and who is apparently so irrelevant that Baseball-Reference.com doesn't even have a page for him.
The general expectation is that Brandon Snyder is the future first baseman for the Orioles. The 13th-overall pick in 2005, Snyder had some injury problems early in his career before moving back to the front of the prospect pack in 2008 and having a Wietersian first-half of 2009 in Bowie. After batting .343 with a 1.000+ OPS in AA, he fell off to a .671 OPS after his promotion to Norfolk, but he could be ready to take over in Baltimore as soon as this June.
Second Base:
The Incumbent: Brian Roberts
The Prospect: Justin Turner
Position #2 that is set going into 2010: Brian Roberts has a four-year extension starting this season through 2013, and unlike a lot of players on a lit of teams, that's not a bad thing. He will be 32 the entire 2010 season, and has averaged 157 games played over the past three seasons. So, there really isn't much of a backup in place on the team: Cesar Izturis can slide over if needed for a short period.
For a longer period the team would likely turn to Justin Turner, who is also a candidate to win the utility infielder job in spring training. Acquired from Cincinnati before the 2009 season as part of the Ramon Hernandez deal, Turner hit .300 (even) in Norfolk with a .749 OPS before a 22-plate appearance stint in Baltimore in September. He played mostly third while in the majors, but also played some at shortstop in AAA.
Shortstop:
The Incumbent: Cesar Izturis
The Backup: Robert Andino
The Competition: Justin Turner, Blake Davis
The Prospect: Mychal Givens
Izturis was signed to be a defensive shortstop to help the young pitching staff. In that role, he was successful in 2009: using the Ultimate Zone Rating stat from FanGraphs, he was the second-best defensive shortstop in baseball, saving almost eleven runs above the average shortstop. However, offense was not part of his deal, nor was it an unexpected surprise as he put up a .622 OPS; second-lowest among shortstops with at least 400 plate appearances last season.
Robert Andino was acquired for former hyped prospect Hayden Penn at the end of spring training in 2009 to be the primary backup infielder. After a couple years of decent numbers in the minors, Andino struggled adjusting to the majors with a .562 OPS in 215 plate appearances.
In addition to Turner, Blake Davis will be waiting in AAA if he is needed. His prospect status took a hit in 2009 due to injuries and offensive issues, but he is known for his defense and any improvement in the upcoming season could get him to Baltimore as a backup.
Mychal Givens has yet to see a professional pitch, but Baseball America named him one of the Orioles' top ten prospects for 2010. He won't be in Baltimore for a while, but as a second-round pick known for his defense he's someone to watch for.
Third Base:
The Incumbent: None
The Competition: Garrett Atkins, Ty Wigginton
The Backup: Wigginton
The Prospect: Josh Bell
Third base is the one position with no true incumbent starter with Melvin Mora moving on. Although Wigginton saw significant playing time at the position his defense was not received well via either eyeball or statistic.
Garrett Atkins was signed to a one-year deal worth a minimum of $4.5 million, with a 2011 option, to try and find his hitting stroke. After putting up an .846 OPS in four years as the Rockies' third baseman, his numbers collapsed to a .650 OPS as he lost his job. The other main question with him is how much of his offense was due to playing in Denver, with his career .735 OPS on the road. He also doesn't grade out as a good third baseman in the statistics, averaging a minus-five UZR per 150 games.
No matter who is at third, though, the expectation is that by midseason they will be supplanted by Josh Bell. The main piece the Orioles received in the George Sherrill deal, Bell put up a .892 OPS and 20 home runs in his split-AA season last year, including .917 in 127 Bowie plate appearances. Much like Matt Wieters in 2009, he will most likely start the year in Norfolk, but will be up in Baltimore playing everyday as soon as his play allows.
Left Field:
The Incumbent: Nolan Reimold
The Competition: Felix Pie, Luke Scott
The Backup: Pie
The most intriguing battle of the 2010 season in Baltimore could be who will take over the left field job for good. Entering 2009, Luke Scott was the incumbent, but was already penciled in as the DH due to the arrival of Felix Pie from the Cubs. By the end of May, Nolan Reimold was up from Norfolk and playing everyday while Pie languished on the bench. By the end of the season, Pie turned his year around with an .842 second-half OPS to finish at .763 on the year, while Reimold had put up an .831 OPS and 15 home runs while receiving some Rookie of the Year consideration before getting hurt in September.
Reimold is likely to start the season as the starter, with Pie as the backup for all three outfield positions.
Center Field:
The Incumbent: Adam Jones
The Backup: Felix Pie
The Prospect: Matt Angle
All-Star. Gold Glove. OPS increased by 81 points. Home run total more than doubled.
It's pretty safe to say that the Orioles have their center fielder for the next half-decade or more. In addition, Jones has appeared more and more in advertising for the Orioles, as one of the faces of the franchise. Pie arguably is even better defensively in center field, so if he turns into a starter on his own that would become a very interesting debate for the years ahead.
Matt Angle was a seventh-round pick out of Ohio State in 2007. In three years, he's advanced as far as Double-A on the strength of defense and plate discipline, both named best in the entire system by Baseball America recently, and 113 stolen bases. He has almost no power, but a great defensive outfielder that can get on-base and steal others will always have value.
Right Field:
The Incumbent: Nick Markakis
The Backup: Felix Pie
Nick Markakis struggled last season, at least by his standards. His power and on-base numbers fell, and most statistical measures of his defense declined as well. However, he signed a six-year extension before last season, so he's going to get every chance to get back on-track. It does help that he was arguably the best right fielder in the league in 2008.
Designated Hitter:
The Incumbent: Luke Scott
The Backup: Nolan Reimold
Luke Scott has hit 48 home runs over two years with the Orioles. Four of them have landed on Eutaw Street. For a player who is still in his arbitration years and will only make $4-5 million in 2010, those are really attractive numbers. In fact, many of the fan discussions about improving the team have started with trading Scott because of his value. At 31, but only five years in the majors, there are plenty of debatable points around whether he is worth more as production on the team, or as a trade piece for something the team needs.
Starting Rotation:
The Starters: Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman
The Competition: David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Jake Arrieta
The Prospects: Arrieta, Zach Britton
Acquired from the Rangers for Chris Ray, Kevin Millwood is expected to act as the veteran leader on the staff. His role is to take pressure off both the bullpen as well as the other starters. Jeremy Guthrie hopes to rebound from a 2009 season where his ERA jumped almost a run-and-a-half and he led the league in home runs allowed.
Brad Bergesen was the true surprise of the 2009 season, riding his ability to induce ground balls to a 3.43 ERA, the lowest among any Oriole who started a game. He was a Rookie of the Year candidate before, like Reimold, he got hurt. Brian Matusz is still officially a prospect, the team's top prospect and one of the top in baseball in fact, and is likely going to be one of the top Rookie of the Year candidates going into 2010. Especially when he went 3-0 with 21 innings pitched, 15 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA in his final three starts. Chris Tillman struggled more than Matusz did but he also showed plenty of flashes of his talent after blowing away the International League through most of the season.
David Hernandez and Jason Berken spent long stretches of 2009 in the rotation, though with less success than the other rookies. Both put up great numbers in the high minors, with Hernandez a strikeout machine and Berken showing good control, so both could end up in the bullpen to start the season with injuries giving them their shot.
Jake Arrieta split 2009 between Double- and Triple-A. He had a combined 3.40 ERA in 150 2/3 innings between the two levels, striking out more than a better per inning in Bowie. Zach Britton was this season's breakout pitching star. A third-round pick out of Weatherford (TX) High School in 2006, he pitched 140 innings for Frederick to the tune of a 2.70 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with a 2.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Bullpen:
The Closer: Mike Gonzalez
The Setup: Jim Johnson
The Guarantees: Koji Uehara, Cla Meredith
The Competition: David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Kameron Mickolio, Dennis Sarfate, Matt Albers, Jim Miller, Luis Lebron, among many.
The Orioles started the 2008 and 2009 seasons with a lefty closer in his 30s, so they went back to what had been working for them. Mike Gonzalez last closed full-time in 2006 with Pittsburgh. However, he pitched to a 2.81 ERA over three seasons with Atlanta, allowed 1.22 baserunners per inning, and 2.67 strikeouts for every walk. At the very least, a good performance could lead to a George Sherrill-like trade over the next two years.
Jim Johnson was up-and-down taking over the closing role for Sherrill, but he excelled in the setup role the previous season-and-a-half. Koji Uehara would be a rotation candidate if he could show more endurance, so he'll get the opportunity to show off in the bullpen. Cla Meredith came over in July from San Diego and pitched to a 3.77 ERA.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
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